Movie-A-Day: Dances With Wolves - Or, what would have won the Best Picture Oscar over the last 20 years if it was left to the critics, audience or box office?

Starring: Kevin Costner, Mary McDonnell, Graham Greene, Floyd Red Crow Westerman
Director: Kevin Costner
Year Of Release: 1990
Plot: Lt. John Dunbar is dubbed a hero after he accidentally leads Union troops to a victory during the American Civil War. He requests a position on the western frontier, but finds it deserted. He soon finds out he is not alone when he encounters a wolf he dubs “Two-socks” and a curious Indian tribe. Dunbar quickly makes friends with the tribe, and discovers a white woman who was raised by the Indians. Not soon after, the frontier becomes the frontier no more, and as the army advances on the plains, John must make a decision that will not only affect him, but also the lives of the natives he now calls his people.

I know the Oscars are over for the year and were meant to forget about them for the next few months, but they did set me thinking. Theres always endless argument over the movies that win, with some feeling the Academy is too elitist, others that its too populist, while the one thing that everybody agrees on seems to be that they rarely make the right choice.

That made me wonder, what would win if you left it to the box office or general critical reaction to decide the Best Picture winner? As a result, and with the excuse that Dances With Wolves won the Best Picture Oscar nearly 20 years ago exactly (and in my opinion its a deserved winner, even though many feel Goodfellas should have picked up the gong), I decided to put together a list of the Best Picture Oscar nominees for the last 20 years, and see which would have won going by the critics, the box office and the general audience reaction.

To do this Ive gone with the Rotten Tomatoes rating to get a general feel for the critics reaction to the movies, the IMDB user score for general audience mood and BoxOfficeMojos numbers for the worldwide box office gross. I know thats not scientific, but it should give a decent idea of how different people think about the films and their overall popularity.

It reveals a few interesting things, such as that overall that Four Wedding and a Funeral would have won the Best Picture Oscar over Pulp Fiction and Shawshank Redemption if it was left to the critics (going by their relative Rotten Tomatoes scores), and that despite most suggesting different, the Oscar winner agrees with the general audience reaction to the nominees more than people think. Its also noticeable that in the last few years there really has been a move away from big box office movies at the Oscars. In every year of the 90s and the first half of the 2000s, at least one of the Best Picture Oscar nominees was among the top 10 films at the worldwide box office, but thats only happened once in the past six years (with this years inclusion of Avatar). As a result you can see why they wanted to increase it to 10 nominees this year, so they could squeeze a few bigger movies in.

You can also see why theres so much argument over whether the Oscar gives the award to the right film, because while the Academy agrees with the box office, critics and/or audience more than you might expect, at no point in the last 20 years have the metrics Ive compared here all agreed on the same movie as the best picture of the year.

Take a look below, as its oddly interesting to compare how these different groups reacted to the movies, and which each would probably have picked out of the Best Picture nominees…

1991 Oscar Nominees:
Awakenings
Dances with Wolves
Ghost
Goodfellas
The Godfather: Part III

Oscar Winner: Dances With Wolves
Box Office Winner: Ghost ($505 million)
Critics Winner: Goodfellas (96% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Goodfellas (8.8/10 on IMDB, and number 15 on their Top 250)

1992 Oscar Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Bugsy
JFK
The Prince Of Tides
The Silence Of The Lambs

Oscar Winner: The Silence Of The Lambs
Box Office Winner: Beauty and the Beast ($352 million, although T2 was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: The Silence Of The Lambs (96% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: The Silence Of The Lambs (8.8/10 on IMDB, and number 24 on their Top 250)

1993 Oscar Nominees:
A Few Good Men
Howards End
Scent Of A Woman
The Crying Game
Unforgiven

Oscar Winner: Unforgiven
Box Office Winner: A Few Good Men ($243 million, although Aladdin was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: The Crying Game (100% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Unforgiven (8.3/10 on IMDB, and number 105 on their Top 250)

1994 Oscar Nominees:
In The Name Of The Father
Schindlers List
The Fugitive
The Piano
The Remains Of The Day

Oscar Winner: Schindlers List
Box Office Winner: The Fugitive ($368 million, although Jurassic Park was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: Schindlers List and The Remains Of The Day (both 97% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Schindlers List (8.9/10 on IMDB, and number 6 on their Top 250)

1995 Oscar Nominees:
Forrest Gump
Four Wedding And A Funeral
Pulp Fiction
Quiz Show
The Shawshank Redemption

Oscar Winner: Forrest Gump
Box Office Winner: Forrest Gump ($677 million, although The Lion King was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: Four Wedding And A Funeral (96% Fresh I know, I cant believe its got a higher rating on Rotten Tomatoes than Shawshank or Pulp Fiction either)
Audience Winner: The Shawshank Redemption (9.2/10 on IMDB, and number 1 on their Top 250)

1996 Oscar Nominees:
Apollo 13
Babe
Braveheart
Il Postino
Sense And Sensibility

Oscar Winner: Braveheart
Box Office Winner: Apollo 13 ($353 million, although Die Hard: With A Vengeance was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: Babe and Sense And Sensibility (both 98% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Braveheart (8.4/10 on IMDB, and number 86 on their Top 250)

1997 Oscar Nominees:
Fargo
Jerry Maguire
Secrets & Lies
Shine
The English Patient

Oscar Winner: The English Patient
Box Office Winner: Jerry Maguire ($273 million, although Independence Day was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: Fargo and Secrets & Lies (both 94% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Fargo (8.3/10 on IMDB, and number 117 on their Top 250)

1998 Oscar Nominees:
As Good As It Gets
Good Will Hunting
LA Confidential
The Full Monty
Titanic

Oscar Winner: Titanic
Box Office Winner: Titanic ($1.8 billion)
Critics Winner: LA Confidential (99% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: LA Confidential (8.4/10 on IMDB, and number 62 on their Top 250)

1999 Oscar Nominees:
Elizabeth
Life Is Beautiful
Saving Private Ryan
Shakespeare In Love
The Thin Red Line

Oscar Winner: Shakespeare In Love
Box Office Winner: Saving Private Ryan ($481 million, although Armageddon was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: Shakespeare In Love (93% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Saving Private Ryan (8.5/10 on IMDB, and number 46 on their Top 250)

2000 Oscar Nominees:
American Beauty
The Cider House Rules
The Green Mile
The Insider
The Sixth Sense

Oscar Winner: American Beauty
Box Office Winner: The Sixth Sense ($672 million, although Star Wars: Episode 1 was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: The Insider (95% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: American Beauty (8.6/10 on IMDB, and number 37 on their Top 250)

2001 Oscar Nominees:
Chocolat
Erin Brockovich
Gladiator
Traffic
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

Oscar Winner: Gladiator
Box Office Winner: Gladiator ($457 million, although Mission: Impossible II was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (97% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Gladiator (8.3/10 on IMDB, and number 100 on their Top 250)

2002 Oscar Nominees:
A Beautiful Mind
Gosford Park
In The Bedroom
Moulin Rouge!
The Lord Of The Rings: Fellowship Of The Ring

Oscar Winner: A Beautiful Mind
Box Office Winner: The Lord Of The Rings: Fellowship Of The Ring ($869 million, although Harry Potter 1 was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: In The Bedroom (94% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: The Lord Of The Rings: Fellowship Of The Ring (8.8/10 on IMDB, and number 18 on their Top 250)

2003 Oscar Nominees:
Chicago
Gangs Of New York
The Hours
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist

Oscar Winner: Chicago
Box Office Winner: The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers ($923 million)
Critics Winner: The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (96% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (8.7/10 on IMDB, and number 28 on their Top 250)

2004 Oscar Nominees:
Lost In Translation
Master And Commander
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
The Lord The Rings: The Return Of The King

Oscar Winner: The Lord Of The Rings: Return Of The King
Box Office Winner: The Lord Of The Rings: Return Of The King ($1.1 billion)
Critics Winner: Lost In Translation (95% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: The Lord Of The Rings: Return Of The King (8.8/10 on IMDB, and number 11 on their Top 250)

2005 Oscar Nominees:
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways
The Aviator

Oscar Winner: Million Dollar Baby
Box Office Winner: Million Dollar Baby ($216 million, although Shrek 2 was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: Sideways (97% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Crash (8.2/10 on IMDB, and number 144 on their Top 250)

2006 Oscar Nominees:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, And Good Luck
Munich

Oscar Winner: Crash
Box Office Winner: Brokeback Mountain ($178 million, although Harry Potter 4 was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: Good Night, And Good Luck (94% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Crash (8.0/10 on IMDB, and number 210 on their Top 250)

2007 Oscar Nominees:
Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Departed
The Queen

Oscar Winner: The Departed
Box Office Winner: The Departed ($290 million, although Pirates Of The Caribbean 2 was the biggest grosser of the year overall)
Critics Winner: The Queen (97% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: The Departed (8.5/10 on IMDB, and number 50 on their Top 250)

2008 Oscar Nominees:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Oscar Winner: No Country For Old Men
Box Office Winner: Juno ($231 million)
Critics Winner: No Country For Old Men (95% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: No Country For Old Men (8.3/10 on IMDB, and number 113 on their Top 250)

2009 Oscar Nominees:
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Reader

Oscar Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Box Office Winner: Slumdog Millionaire ($377 million)
Critics Winner: Milk (94% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Slumdog Millionaire (8.4/10 on IMDB, and number 94 on their Top 250)

2010 Oscar Nominees:
A Serious Man
An Education
Avatar
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
The Blind Side
The Hurt Locker
Up
Up In The Air

Oscar Winner: The Hurt Locker
Box Office Winner: Avatar ($2.7 billion)
Critics Winner: Up (98% Fresh on RT)
Audience Winner: Avatar (8.5/10 on IMDB, and number 70 on their Top 250, with Inglourious Basterds at 71, and Up at number 74)

TIM ISAAC

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Movie-A-Day: Dances With Wolves – Or, what would have won the Best Picture Oscar over the last 20 years if it was left to the critics, audience or box office?

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